We’ve been checking in every quarter to assess demand in our marketplace. In the first quarter of 2024 we noted that demand appeared to be stabilising after the COVID bicycle boom, and subsequent reset.
In the second quarter of 2024 we saw a 5% increase in demand year on year, offering reassurance that equilibrium has indeed been restored in the industry.
Here’s what we found in the third quarter of 2024:
Demand Remains Steady
After a particularly brutal winter we expected to see some contraction in demand, so we were pleased to see that enquiries for Q3 2024 are up 3.3% year on year (see the graph below).
Enquiries (responses to ads) are not a direct measure of sales, but they are an excellent indicator of demand and we can assume that there is a correlation with sales.
Unique Enquiries by category
Total enquiries on bikes by category for Q3 2024. Dual Suspension Mountain Bikes still make up the biggest slice of the pie, with Road Bikes surprisingly close behind.
Gravel continues to grow
Gravel has continued it’s growth trajectory with an impressive 22% increase in enquiries in Q3 year on year. It has remained flat from Q2 showing no seasonal decline.
This suggests that the gravel events that pepper the winter season have an impact on demand, or simply that demand in this category is still growing. Interestingly gravel is one of the few categories where enquiries in the Western Cape outstrip Gauteng, with 329 vs 307.
E-bikes are on the charge
E-bikes continue to show year-on-year growth, with a 10% increase year on year in Q3. Once again the Western Cape tops Gauteng in terms of enquiries with 244 vs 215 in Gauteng and this is one of the few categories where this the case.
Dual Suspension MTB
It’s positive to see dual suspension mountain bikes up 8.9% year on year in Q3. As the bread and butter of South African bicycle sales it’s an effective indicator of the overall health of the market.
The Road is level
Road has seen a 2.25% decrease in enquiries year on year in Q3. This is not unexpected given the rough winter we have experienced, and possibly also due to some cannibalisation by the gravel bikes segment. Historically summer is road bike season, so we’ll need to see what Q4 delivers.
Interestingly, while the bulk of enquiries sit in the under R25k price bracket, the 25-50k price band showed the only increase in enquiries year on year.
Hardtail MTB contracts
Hardtail MTBs are down 6.25% year on year for Q3 after a stable Q1 and Q2. Once again, the majority of the enquiries focus on the under R25k price band.
It’s possible that some hardtail sales are being lost to reduced pricing on dual suspension mountain-bikes.
Disclaimers:
- We are reporting on data from the Bike Hub marketplace only, which may not reflect the wider industry.
- Unique enquiries count one enquiry per user per ad, even if the user clicked multiple times or used multiple contact methods.
- User region data accuracy is based on IP address geolocation services by MaxMind, with 60-80% accuracy.
Thumbnail image credit: DALL·E
Keen to know more?
Like us, you might end up with more questions than when you started. Pop your questions in the comments, and we’ll do our best to answer them.
Might it also be a metric to show a beak down in 1, 3, 5 10, 15 year buckets how long active user have bee using the hub?
a older base would probably point to lower number of high price transaction where as more "new" users may predominant be looking at entry / budget friendly options